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AEP (AEP) Down 0.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for American Electric Power (AEP - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AEP due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

American Electric Q1 Earnings Lag, Revenues Rise Y/Y

American Electric Power Company reported first-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.27, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.30 by 2.3%. However, the bottom line improved 14.4% from $1.11 recorded in the year-ago quarter.

The company reported GAAP earnings of $1.91 per share compared with the year-ago quarter’s figure of 77 cents.

Total Revenues

American Electric’s first-quarter operating revenues of $5.03 billion lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.29 billion by 5.4%. However, the reported figure rose 7.1% from the year-ago quarter’s level of $4.69 billion.

Segmental Performance

Vertically Integrated Utility Operations: Adjusted earnings for the quarter increased to $300.3 million from $265.2 million in the year-ago period.

Transmission & Distribution Utilities: Adjusted earnings totaled $150.3 million, up from $125.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

AEP Transmission Holdco: This segment generated adjusted earnings of $208.7 million, up from $181.5 million in the year-ago quarter.

Generation and Marketing: Adjusted earnings amounted to $65.4 million, up from $45.2 million in the year-ago quarter.

All Other: The segment reported a loss of $54.3 million compared with a loss of $46 million in the year-ago period.

Highlights of the Result

In the reported quarter, electricity sales volume from Vertically Integrated Utilities increased 5.2% year over year, while electric sales volume from Transmission & Distribution Utilities improved 8.4%.

Total expenses in the first quarter of 2024 were $3.85 billion, down 3.3% from the year-ago level.

Interest expenses amounted to $435.6 million, up 4.8% from $415.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

Guidance

American Electric reiterated its 2024 operating earnings guidance. It still expects to generate earnings in the band of $5.53-$5.73 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings is pegged at $5.54 per share, which lies near the lower end of the company’s projected range.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 10.84% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, AEP has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, AEP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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